Friday, June 11, 2004


In the popular vote, it's probably a dead heat (statistically). But that has nothing to do with who's going to win. See the Rasmussen poll results for the past month -- not much has really changed.

It's still Bush's to lose. I don't think Kerry is capable of firing any silver bullets.

Kerry will hedge his bets in the "debates", which will be a mistake. He will continue to complete a portrait he has painted of a man "absent without leave." No big ideas. No vision. Just a moderately competent, party-loyal legislator with a rich wife. The leader of the free world? I don't think he fits that suit. This won't win him any votes.

Bush will probably come up with another couple of Bushisms. You know, made up words that everybody understands, but the intellectual elite will indulge in self-congratulation that he is empty-headed. (Pause: if I went to Yale and Harvard, would you consider me to be amongst the intellectual elite? Yes? So why isn't Bush?) This won't lose him any votes.

As Kerry continues to try to paint a more middle-of-the-road picture, he will encourage his most radical supporters to become disillusioned and vote for Nader in protest. The degree to which this happens will be critical in some states, as it was in Florida in 2000 -- Gore would've slam-dunked Florida if the Nader voters voted for him.

Whatever Kerry or Nader do, though, if Bush screws the pooch between now and November 2nd, it's back to the ranch.

UPDATE: Looks like they've figured out the relatively small number of "undecideds" will determine who wins.


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