Wednesday, December 10, 2003

GORE'S ENDORSEMENT OF DEAN -- FIRST TAKE

I suppose it really pissed off Lieberman. Apparently, the guy who was only a few votes and a heartbeat away from the presidency didn't deserve a phone call from Gore before Gore announced for Dean. Guess it shows what a piece of dreck Gore really is. It would have been the "right thing" for Gore to call Lieberman first, as a courtesy. But I guess that's too much to ask.

Dean seemed pleased and if you believe the pundits, this nails it. The Dem nomination is his. All he has to do is show up. So if Gore's support wins him the nomination, good. Or is it?

Logically, the Dean campaign has a tall order. It has to:

1. Convince all of those who voted for Gore/Lieberman to vote for Dean/?.
2. Convince (in key states) some of those who voted for Bush/Cheney to vote for Dean/?.
3. Convince a majority of those who didn't vote in the last election to vote for Dean/?.

If you look at those three challenges, I've got to believe Dean has already lost.

First, I doubt that everyone who voted for Gore/Lieberman now believe they would've been the best guys for the job we now have at hand. Everything I've seen has said there has been a definite "switch" in attitude amongst some of those who voted for Gore/Lieberman who now believe Bush/Cheney is the better choice in a wartime scenario.

Second, I can't envision anyone who voted for Bush/Cheney (in a key state) switching their vote.

Third, I've got to believe that many Republicans who didn't vote last time will vote this time. More so than Democrats.

Finally, I also have to believe that the Dems will get a slim majority of the "new" voters. But it won't be enough to matter in the key states.

Net-net, the Dems still lose. The key (as in 2000) will be the big electoral vote states. Bush may not need a majority of the popular vote to win. It seems, based on the polls, he has already locked the key states, but a lot can happen between now and next November.

Then again, assuming Dean's the guy, there is another 10 1/2 months for him to pull a few gaffes or have some skeleton fall out of a closet somewhere. I think a lot of people haven't really looked at him that closely and won't until he wins the nomination.

The big wild card now will be who he will pick as a running mate. Based on the demographics, it should be someone like John Edwards.


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