Tuesday, August 26, 2003


You remember Japan, don't you? A couple of decades ago, America was scared shitless. The Japanese were taking over the US. We were trading Hondas and Sony TVs for US real estate. The Japanese juggernaut killed the US auto industry, US steel, you name it. Right?

Guess not. They tried, sort of, but they forgot Economics 101 and almost killed their own country through paranoia-driven over-saving. It was a classic case of a depression driven by under-consumption, driven by hyper-hysteria-driven runups in the value of real estate and equities, followed by the inevitable collapse. In effect, they almost starved themselves to death.

Are they back? Hard to say. I'm not convinced they're out of the swamp, but others are saying a lot of positive things. I hope they're right, but believe the recovery will be very long in coming.


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